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The Federal Deficit

Many of those who despise President Trump justify their hatred by insisting that he’s a heinous human being and anyone who supports him is just as sinister.

There was a question on Quora that I attempted to answer and it was, yet again, another situation where you feel as though no amount of facts can sway someone who’s determined to ignore anything other than what they want to hear.

At one point in the exchange, she said this:

…the US federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2026 (starting Oct 1, 2025) stands at approximately $1.17 trillion for the first six months, representing the third-worst first-half in history. While slightly lower than the same period in FY2025, the deficit remains historically high, with total FY2026 projections nearing $1.85.

When you read, “The US deficit is now at $1.17 trillion over the first 6 months of FY2026, the 3rd-worst first-half in history,” you are inclined to think the US economy is weak and getting progressively weaker.

The problem with that perspective is that it doesn’t take into consideration other information that significantly changes the conclusion that number by itself would imply.

Take a look…

Biden
2023 1.695 trillion + 138 billion “President Biden and Vice President Harris have ignored resounding messages from Iowans and Americans nationwide, as well as alarms from global credit ratings companies. By consistently choosing a spendthrift agenda over fiscal sanity, this administration has hamstrung our economy for generations to come,” Grassley said. “Our nation needs a change of pace from the one this administration has set. Vice President Harris’ recent proposals, however, signal an unwillingness to meaningfully address Americans’ concerns and a readiness to double down on policies that have caused major consequences, like prices rising over 20 percent in less than four years.” United States Senate Committee on the Budget
2024 1.833 trillion
Trump
2025 1.78 trillion -50 billion WASHINGTON, DC –Today, the Joint Economic Committee released its Monthly Fiscal Update. In FY2025, the nation ended with a $1.78 trillion deficit, $50 billion (2.8 percent) less than FY2024. Leading to the decreased deficit impact was the record-setting tariff collections of $195 billion for FY2025, increased tax receipts, and modifications to the student loan program authorized in the 2025 reconciliation act. While customs duties jumped significantly in FY2025, it still accounts for only 3.7 percent of total receipts. United States Congress Joint Economic Committee
2026 1.2 trillion (first half) -139 billion WASHINGTON, D.C. – This week, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published its monthly budget review which estimated the federal budget deficit totaled $1.2 trillion in the first half of fiscal year 2026. That amount is $139 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) released the following statement:

“The non-partisan CBO recently did a comparison of the first six months of last fiscal year (FY25) with the first six months of this fiscal year (FY26). The report showed that the combination of savings from cutting bureaucratic waste and increased revenue from tariffs helped lower the deficit by $139b, which is over 10%. If we continue cutting waste and fraud from the federal government as well as incentivizing economic growth, we will stabilize the debt and put our nation on a credible path to balance going to 3% deficit-to-GDP from 6% over the next several years.”

Budget Committee 

If you take a closer look at the 2025 statement made by the Joint Economic Committee, you’ll see how they highlight the fact that the 2025 deficit was 50 billion dollars less than the last year of the Biden administration.

Then, if you take a look at what this year’s Budget Committee said,  despite the sobering amount represented by the first six months of this year, we’re nevertheless 139 billion dollars less than the same time last year.

So, would it not make sense to be encouraged by this number, based on the way it can be compared to last year’s situation which represented a 50 billion dollar improvement over the previous year?

Absolutely!

But if you’re determined to ignore anything that doesn’t promote what you want to believe, not only will your conclusions never be accurate, but you’ve restricted yourself and anyone else impacted by your thought processes to a world of pain and problems.

However nonsensical that may sound, it is precisely what happens when you’re resolved to define truth according to what you feel as opposed to what is real and that is the fundamental dispute that fuels all of the political tension that exists in our society today.